MOLINE, Ill — It's been no secret that February 2024 has been nice to us, thanks largely in part to a strong El Niño. Currently ranked well within the top five warmest February months on record in the Quad Cities, it also lures us into a false sense of security, thinking that snow is done for the season. Not so fast! We've got the receipts to prove otherwise.
February 2024 is currently ranked as the fourth warmest February on record for the Quad Cities, coming in at a balmy 37.5° as of February 19. That isn't too far away from the all-time record 39.5° in 1877. Given the warmer temperature pattern set to take hold and remain in place through the first few days of March, it is very likely that we will challenge the 1877 record.
Won't it just stay warm?
Even though meteorologists often look to the future, the past can also hold some invaluable information concerning what may potentially happen in the weeks ahead. Going back to all of the previous warm February months on record and crunching the numbers, it was easy to see why we are likely not done with snowfall yet for the season.
We don't have any snowfall data for the top spot on the above list, but we do have data for the others and it is quite surprising. The warmer pattern just couldn't hold on forever and eventually, some colder air made its way back into the Quad Cities. Cold enough for snow! Take 2017 for example. That February resulted in five days worth of high temperatures in the 70s, smashing records. What followed that March was nearly half a foot of snowfall. Talk about the extreme!
Some of the biggest late-season snows
There are many other months that were like 2017 as well in terms of warmth and snow. In fact, 95% of March months that followed a warm February logged a measurable amount of snow. Nearly 40% had more than an inch of snow.
Snow in April is a little more difficult to attain due to the higher sun angle, but it certainly isn't impossible. 80% of the following April months also had measurable snow, with a much lower 20% seeing more than an inch fall.
Some of the biggest March snows after a warm February include:
March 2023: 10.5"
March 2018: 10.4"
March 1983: 12.7"
March 1977: 10.8"
Some of the biggest April snows after a warm February include:
April 1911: 6.0"
April 1997: 13.3"
April 2020: 7.4"
So, snow lovers shouldn't give up just yet. There is a glimmer of hope regarding snowfall probabilities for March and April of this year. All you need is just enough cold air and a decent storm system to come along. The odds are in your favor. If you are on the other end of the spectrum and wishing snow was done for the reason of the season, don't forget! That sun continues to get stronger and stronger with each passing day and any snow we do pick up in the next several weeks typically doesn't stick around very long.