MOLINE, Ill. — The National Weather Service has released a fourth update on the river flood potential. While the flood risk on the Mississippi River remains above normal, there is some good news with the potential of reaching major flood stage.
Two weeks ago, the probability of reaching major flood state on the Mississippi River at Rock Island was 82%. On Thursday, that probability dropped to 68%.
The reason we have seen this slight decrease is due to drier-than-usual conditions locally and to our north during the past two weeks. This means that the streamflow in the upper Mississippi basin is running near normal and is able to take on a little extra water.
Reaching minor and moderate flood stages still remains high at a 95%+ chance as there is still a heavy snowpack on the ground to the north in Minnesota and Wisconsin. The rate of snowmelt, additional snowfall and spring rains will still be monitored closely to determine the severity of the flood risk going forward.
Interested in when we could see river levels peak this year? That looks to be around the end of April and the first week of May as of Thursday's update. If we see temperatures cooler than normal into the month of April, then that timeline could be shifted later.
The National Weather Service will continue to release outlooks throughout the next few months. You can find those future outlooks here.
Here's a quick summary of other rivers throughout the Quad Cities and the associated flood risk for the period of March 27 to June 25:
Rock River near Moline & Joslin - Probability of meeting or exceeding the following stages:
- Minor: 65%
- Moderate: 45%
- Major: 30%
Wapsipinicon River near DeWitt - Probability of meeting or exceeding the following stages:
- Minor: 82%
- Moderate: 76%
- Major: 49%
Cedar River near Conesville - Probability of meeting or exceeding the following stages:
- Minor: 61%
- Moderate: 16%
- Major: 6%