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Interactive virtual map shows heightened risk of COVID-19 in Illinois and Iowa, ahead of Thanksgiving

The 'COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool' from Georgia Tech says at an event of just 10 people, there is a 50% chance someone is infected with COVID-19.

ROCK ISLAND, Illinois — Just days out from Thanksgiving, the Rock Island County Health Department is encouraging everyone to follow public health guidance during the holiday season by limiting celebrations to just your household. 

'I'm a little nervous. This has been a long eight to nine months," Chief Operating Officer Janet Hill. "I know people are tired, and I'm tired." 

An online, interactive map from Georgia Tech shows the risk across the country, and locally, of having larger gatherings right now. It assesses the chance at least one COVID-19 positive person is in attendance at events of 10 to 5000 people. 

The website pulls data from The COVID Tracking Project and uses what's called an ascertainment bias, which assumes that there are about five times more cases than what's reported because not everyone gets tested. 

"I looked at it. For our region, even a gathering of 10 or fewer means you can come out of Thanksgiving with an exposure, and if you move that bar all the way over to 50, it's virtually guaranteed that you get sick," Hill says. 

In both Scott and Rock Island Counties, the interactive map says at an event of just 10 people, there is a 50% risk someone is infected with COVID-19. For a party of 25 people, it jumps to about 80 percent on both sides of the river. The risk of being exposed to COVID-19 at an event of 50 people is almost certain. 

"Those are not numbers that I would think are small," Hill says. "If you're going to attend a gathering and if you wake up in the morning and you don't feel well, please cancel, you'll be putting everyone at that gathering at risk."

She says keep an eye on how you feel when making any final decisions about Thanksgiving. 

"Listen to your body, understand COVID-19 symptoms are vague and please be cautious," Hill says. 

Editor's note: A previous version of this article insinuated the assessment tool estimated the chance of getting sick. This article has been corrected to show the tool estimates risk of being at an event with someone who has COVID-19.

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