It's been a while since we've had a good dose of wintry weather. This weekend could bring us the best chance in more than a month!
Initially, we'll have quite a bit of rainfall Thursday into the first part of Friday. Heavy rain will be possible for areas east of the Mississippi River (and especially downstate).
One of the ways we build an accurate forecast is through forecast confidence. The graphic above gives us a good look at that. We have absolute confidence in the idea of rain Thursday evening. Every one of the four models has about the same level of rain at the same time.
Looking ahead to the wintry side of the storm system, three out of the four are in pretty good agreement. The GFS, Euro, and NAM have a period of rain-ice-snow taking place Friday night. The GEM model has us warmer with rain right up to Saturday afternoon. That's the outlier here.
For now, will highlight the potential for a glaze of ice late Friday night with snowy conditions developing through the day on Saturday.
As temperatures drop Friday afternoon and evening, there's a chance of seeing some of this rain freeze on contact. Up to 1/4 inch of ice is possible as we go through Friday before it switches over to snow on Saturday. Best chances for this will be from the Quad Cities down to Galesburg, and especially into lower Michigan.
It's too early to be accurate with snowfall amounts on Saturday, but several inches will be possible. We should know a lot more by Thursday morning. If you have travel plans, you may want to implement "Plan-B" for Saturday as icy and snowy weather is anticipated.
-Meteorologist Eric Sorensen